NOVEMBER 2019

Analysis - Key Findings
Moving Forward


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Publisher's Notes - Letters - Facility of the Month - Organization of the Month - Male Pro of the Month
Female Pro of the Month - Spotlight Pickleball - Suzanna McGee Fitness - Marsha Friedman PR
Trending - Rod Heckelman - Javier Palenque - Roger Stenquist - Rich Neher Feature - Gary Horvath
Chris Hagman - Joshua Jacobs - Where Are They Now?

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The Decline in the Number of Unique Players in the USTA League

Purpose of Analysis
The purpose of this short analysis is to better understand the change in participation for the USTA League in each of the seventeen USTA sections. It will focus on the change in the number of unique players, registrations, and the ratio of registrations per unique player for the period 2010 to 2019.

U.S. Results Serve as a Benchmark (2010 to 2019)
Nationally, the number of unique league players declined at a rate of -0.7%. There were increases in the number of unique players in only three of the nine years. In two of those years the increase was less than 0.5%. In the other year, there was a large increase which was offset by a more substantial decrease in the following year.

On a more positive note, league registrations increased by 2.4%, and the ratio of registrations per unique players increased from 2.10 to 2.77. Unfortunately, the number of registrations increased at a decelerating rate during this period.

These U.S. results serve as a benchmark when evaluating the sectional data.

Overview of Process
In the initial phase of the analysis, the seventeen USTA sections were grouped into three categories (large, middle-sized, and small) to determine if the changes in growth rate differed by the general size of the section. The groups were based on the number of unique players in each section during 2019.

Large Category
There were declines in the number of unique players in four of the five USTA sections in the large category (Table I). Texas was the only section that experienced growth. Registrations increased in all five sections.

The large category accounted for slightly more than 57% of unique players in 2019. Between 2010 and 2019, the number of unique players declined at an annualized rate of -1.3%.

The number of registrations in the large category increased by 1.8%. In 2019, about 62% of total registrations were in the large category. Between 2010 and 2019, only 47% of new registrations were in the large category.

In 2019 the ratio of registrations per unique player was 3.0, an increase from 2.3 in 2010.

Summary - Because the large category underperformed, it was a drag on the overall change in the number of registrations and unique players. The large category had the highest ratio of registrations to unique players.

 

 

Middle-Sized Category
There were declines in the number of unique players for the two largest USTA sections in the middle-sized category. The five smaller sections recorded gains (Table II).

The middle-sized category accounted for slightly more than 30% of the unique players in 2019. The number of unique players increased at an annualized rate of 0.3% between 2010 and 2019.

The middle-sized category increased the number of registrations by 3.4%. It accounted for approximately 47% of total new registrations between 2010 and 2019. About 36% of the total registrations in 2019 were in the middle-sized category.

In 2019 the ratio of registrations per unique player was 2.4, an increase from 1.8 in 2010.

Summary - The middle-sized category made a positive contribution to the change in registrations and unique players between 2010 and 2019.

 

 


Small Category
The three largest USTA sections in the small category posted increases in their number of unique players, while there were declines in the three smaller USTA sections (Table III). Data for the Caribbean section were adversely affected by hurricane damage to facilities between 2010 and 2019.

The small category accounted for slightly more than 12% of unique players in 2019 and the number of unique players increased at an annualized rate of 0.3%.

On average, the small category increased the number of registrations by 3.9%. It accounted for approximately 17% of total new registrations between 2010 and 2019. About 11% of the registrations in 2019 were in the small category.

In 2019 the ratio of registrations per unique player was 2.5, an increase from 1.8 in 2010.

Summary The small category made a positive contribution to the change in registrations and unique players between 2010 and 2019.

 

 

Registrations vs. Unique Players - 17 Sections
The second phase of analysis illustrates the relationship between unique players and registrations for the 17 sections (Chart I). The one USTA section in the bottom quadrant on the left-hand side had declines in both registrations and the number of unique players. It represents 0.9% of total unique players.

The eight sections plotted in the upper left-hand quadrant had declines in the number of unique players but increases in the number of registrations. They accounted for 63.4% of total unique players.

Finally, the eight sections in the upper right-hand quadrant had increases in the number of unique players and registrations. They accounted for 35.7% of total players. Seven of these eight sections are from the small and middle-sized categories.

 

 


Key Findings
The data in the above tables and chart is consistent with discussions in online coaching groups that indicate there are disparities in the growth of the sport throughout the country.

The chart shows that about two-thirds of the unique players are in USTA sections that experienced declines in the number of unique league players between 2010 and 2019. It is tempting to assume these sections are the source of the decline in total participation for the U.S., but there is not enough data in this analysis to make such a statement.

The data also shows that larger sections tend to have higher ratios of registrations per unique players. It is easy to hypothesize that these sections place greater emphasis on registrations, core players, and revenue generation rather than bringing more players to the USTA League. Again, this might be the case, but there is insufficient data to reach that conclusion.

A final conjecture is that activity in the USTA League is more dynamic in the divisions in the top right corner of Chart I (Missouri Valley, Pacific NW, Southern California, and Southwest) because they have strong growth in both the number of registrations and unique players. Further analysis is needed to determine whether there is merit to this tendency.

Moving Forward
The USTA League is an important part of the tennis culture at facilities in all USTA sections; however, league players comprise a small percent of the tennis population. A case can be made that the USTA league is more important to the USTA than it is to the industry because it generates memberships, player contact lists, a revenue stream, and brand awareness.

For that reason, tennis professionals and coaches must remain focused on meeting the needs and preferences of the players in their spheres of influence. The downturn in tennis activity hasn't changed the fact that tennis continues to be a great game to play, instruct, and watch. In time, the current downturn in tennis activity will pass, just as tennis professionals and the industry showed great perseverance to survive the boom and the bust of the Bobby Riggs vs. Billie Jean King era.